TODAY's Al Roker and Matt Lauer report from Key West, Fla., which is being hit by heavy winds and rain. Other parts of the state are experiencing similar conditions, including the site of the Republican National Convention in Tampa.
By Miguel Llanos, NBC News
Updated at 9:30 a.m. ET: MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Isaac swirled into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, threatening to strengthen into a hurricane that could make landfall near Louisiana almost seven years to the day after Katrina struck.
It's "trying to form an eye-like feature" but it's "still a little bit shy of hurricane status," National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb said in a morning update.
At 65 mph, Isaac was just a few miles short of hurricane status and that should happen within the next 24 hours, Knabb added.?
The governors of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi declared states of emergency as a hurricane warning went into effect for?a roughly 300-mile stretch of the Gulf Coast in four states from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
"Tonight is when the conditions will start to go downhill" ahead of landfall Tuesday night, Knabb said.
The National Hurricane Center was no longer forecasting a Category 2 hurricane on landfall, but instead a weaker Category 1. Still, Isaac will probably move slowly inland, possibly dumping as much as 18 inches of rain in places, Knabb said.
"That's going to be the big problem," NBC meteorologist Al Roker said on TODAY. "We're talking about potentially 24 hours of hurricane force winds and heavy rain."
"Storm surge is going to be a big, big problem," he added. "Six to twelve feet above normal as you get to New Orleans. Panama City is about four to seven feet."
Follow Isaac's path with our storm tracker
The hurricane warning area runs from Morgan City, La., westward to Destin, Fla. It includes?New Orleans, which was devastated when Hurricane Katrina swept over the city on August 29, 2005, killing more than 1,800 people and causing billions of dollars of damage along the coast. A hurricane hasn't hit the Gulf Coast since Ike in 2008.
NBC's Lester Holt reports from New Orleans, La., where residents and visitors are prepping for Tropical Storm Isaac ?as it threatens to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall.
If Isaac makes landfall a bit west of New Orleans that puts the city in the northeast quadrant of the storm, Roker noted, "and that's the worst place" for storm impact.
With tropical storm force winds that extend 240 miles from its center, Isaac is an unusually wide storm.?
"Impacts will be far to the east and to the west of where it comes ashore," Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told TODAY.
TODAY's Savannah Guthrie talks to Jefferson Parish president John Young about possible impact of Tropical Storm Isaac on Louisiana, how residents should prepare and when voluntary evacuations will become mandatory.
Reshuffled Republican convention to proceed on Tuesday
Robert Latham, the director of Mississippi's emergency management agency, urged residents to prepare for the storm's possible arrival.
"This is important to remember, this is a huge storm," he said. "I don't have to tell you what a storm like that can do."
Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley ordered mandatory evacuations beginning on Monday for residents in low-lying areas along the coast.
Oil companies earlier evacuated workers and cut production at Gulf offshore rigs.
Weather.com reported that areas as far west as extreme southeast Texas should continue to monitor Isaac's progress in case a farther west track materializes.
Alan Diaz / AP
Tropical Storm Isaac rakes the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba as begins to bear down on Florida, where Tampa will be hosting the Republican National Convention.
Some Gulf residents started stocking up on supplies and securing their homes. In New Orleans, long lines formed at some gas stations and in Gulfport, Miss., people crowded supermarkets to buy bottled water and canned food.
On Sunday,?the storm lashed the?Florida Keys?and Miami area with wind and rain. Monday morning, some 80,000 south Florida homes and businesses were without electricity due to downed trees that fell on power lines.
Impact on gas prices?
Forecasters are predicting a more westward track that could bring Isaac over the heart of the U.S. offshore oil patch, which produces about 23 percent of U.S. oil output and 7 percent of its natural gas.
Once ashore, the storm could wreak havoc on low-lying fuel refineries along the Gulf Coast that account for about 40 percent of U.S. refining capacity.
Isaac's path ? whether west toward the Florida Panhandle or east toward New Orleans ? is disputed by European and U.S. weather forecasting models. The Weather Channel's Bryan Norcross has more.
That could send gasoline prices spiking just ahead of the Labor Day holiday, analysts told Reuters. "It's going right in the heart of refinery row," Phil Flynn, an analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago, said Sunday.
From weather.com: Live updates and analysis
Isaac's westward track meant the worst of its weather missed Tampa, where the Republican National Convention was to open its four-day meeting on Monday -- but official events were delayed until Tuesday because of the storm.
Tampa and much of Florida's west coast and panhandle saw bands of heavy rain on Tuesday morning.
"There's an isolated tornado threat in central Florida up through the northeastern gulf area," Knabb said. "Just because the center is out in the gulf don't think that in Florida there aren't some hazards."
Several governors from Gulf states have altered their plans for the GOP convention. Alabama's Gov. Bentley has canceled his trip, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said he's likely to do so unless the threat from the storm subsides. Florida Gov. Rick Scott gave up a chance to speak.?
NBC's Chuck Todd reports from Tampa, Fla., where delays at the Republican National Convention due to Tropical Storm Isaac are set to disrupt the lead-up to Mitt Romney's acceptance of the Republican nomination for president.
In south Florida, winds from Isaac forced cancellations of hundreds of flights in and out of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and other south Florida airports on Sunday.
Isaac moved into the Gulf of Mexico after spending several days sweeping across the Caribbean.
In Haiti, Isaac added to the misery of more than 350,000 survivors of the 2010 earthquake still living in flimsy resettlement camps as water gushed into tents and corrugated plastic shacks were ripped apart by the wind.
Isaac slams tent camps in Haiti
Authorities in the impoverished nation said the storm had killed eight people, including three children.
In the Dominican Republic, officials said three people were missing, and confirmed the death of the mayor of a town near Santo Domingo, who was swept away as he tried to save another person from a flooded river.
No deaths or injuries were reported in Cuba, which got off lightly when the storm crossed its eastern flank instead of raking up the length of the island as originally predicted.
Weather.com, Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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